“Impacts of climate change on the Human migration in Dadu district Sindh Pakistan”

Abstract

Migration in sensitive areas is becoming more and more influenced by climate change. The aim of this study is to explore the impact of climate hazards on human migration in Dadu District (Sindh Province) in Pakistan. The study employed a mixed methods design, combining secondary climate and socio-economic data with primary household data surveys and key informant interviews in 2024. We compare climate variables (trend in rainfall and temperature) from 2010-2023 with survey data on migration outcomes using SPSS for statistical correlations and regressions. Our quantitative results indicate a strong relationship between extreme monsoon floods and the increased migration: when the monsoon floods, the out-migration rate from Dadu significantly increased in heavy-flood years, such as 2010 and 2022. For instance, the correlation coefficient of Pearson between annual rainfall anomalies and number of migrating households is r≈0.93 with p<0.01 indicating a strong relationship. Logistic regression reveals that each unit increase in flood severity significantly increases the risk of at least one household member migrating, adjusting for income and education level of the household. Flood related crop losses and damage to housing are identified as key “push” factors following the qualitative interviews, in line with the literature on climate vulnerability [1][2]. Poorer families were more likely to move (often temporarily) in search of jobs, while better off families managed to deal with pressures through existing support networks [1][3]. The results are consistent with the previous studies, as hundreds of millions of people have been displaced in Sindh (7 million in 2022 floods[4]) and Dadu was hit hard in the floods[5]. We are developing a conceptual framework that connects climate stress (flood/drought) to migration through shocks to livelihoods and the moderation of socioeconomic resilience. Policymakers should consider migration as a component of adaptation, for instance by creating "migration-sensitive" adaptation funds and involving rural migrants in the planning process [6]. Distress migration can be minimised if agriculture is resilient to climate change and disaster preparedness is enhanced in Dadu.