Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use & Land Surface Temperature Dynamics and Their Potential Impacts on Agriculture of Hafizabad District, Pakistan, Using Multispectral Satellite Imagery

Abstract

Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) transformations and rising Land Surface Temperature (LST) have emerged as major environmental challenges affecting agricultural sustainability in rapidly urbanizing regions. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of LULC, LST, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) in Hafizabad District, Punjab, Pakistan, between 2016 and 2022 using multispectral Landsat satellite imagery and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. Supervised Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) was employed to classify land cover into built-up area, vegetation, agricultural land, barren land, and water bodies, while thermal infrared data were utilized for LST retrieval. The results revealed a continuous expansion of built-up areas accompanied by a decline in vegetation and agricultural land. NDVI values ranged between -0.10 and 0.50, showing a noticeable reduction in healthy vegetation cover during the study period, whereas NDBI values increased, indicating accelerated urban growth. Classification accuracy exceeded 85%, with Kappa coefficients greater than 0.82, confirming the reliability of the results. LST exhibited a persistent increasing trend and showed a strong positive relationship with NDBI and a negative relationship with NDVI, demonstrating that urban expansion and loss of vegetation are the primary drivers of localized warming. The conversion of fertile agricultural land into residential and infrastructural developments has significantly affected the rice–wheat cropping system of Hafizabad, reducing cultivated areas and increasing thermal stress on crops. Elevated surface temperatures during critical crop growth stages may shorten grain-filling periods and adversely influence crop productivity. The findings highlight the urgent need for sustainable land-use planning, protection of prime agricultural land, and implementation of green infrastructure strategies to mitigate urban heat island effects and ensure long-term agricultural sustainability in one of Punjab's major food-producing districts.

Keywords: LULC, Land Surface Temperature (LST), NDVI, NDBI, Cropping Patterns, Remote Sensing, Hafizabad