Maritime Security and Strategic Competition in the Indian Ocean: A Realist Analysis of the China–India–United States Triangle

Abstract

This article examines the evolving dynamics of maritime security competition in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) through the lens of classical realist and structural realist theory. It argues that the triangular strategic relationship between China, India, and the United States constitutes the defining axis of twenty-first-century maritime order in the IOR. Drawing on the core realist premises of anarchy, self-help, and the balance of power, the article analyses how each state pursues naval expansion, seeks to control maritime chokepoints, and constructs partnerships calibrated to offset rival power. The article contends that China's maritime assertiveness, driven by the strategic imperative of protecting sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and projecting power beyond its near seas, has catalysed a countervailing alignment between India and the United States that reshapes the strategic geography of the wider Indo-Pacific. While structural pressures toward balancing remain dominant, the article also identifies the countervailing logic of asymmetric interdependence and institutional hedging that complicates a purely conflictual trajectory. The analysis relies on process tracing and qualitative case comparison grounded in primary strategic documents and a systematic engagement with the existing literature. The article concludes that, absent a robust multilateral maritime security architecture, the IOR is likely to remain an arena of persistent great-power competition.