Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Tuberculosis Cases in Pakistan Using Regression Analysis with Real clinical Data (2002–2018)

Authors

  • Dr. Zohaib Ali
  • Dr. Syeda Hira Fatima Naqvi Assistant Professor, Institute of Mathematics & Computer Science, University of Sindh, Jamshoro, Pakistan
  • Dr. Zubair Ahmed Kalhoro Associate Professor, Institute of Mathematics & Computer Science, University of Sindh, Jamshoro, Pakistan
  • Muzaffar Hussain Laghari Subject Specialist GBHSS Bhansinghabad, Mirpurkhas, Sindh Education and Literacy Department, Government of Sindh
  • Abdul Rafiu Alias Furkan Subject Specialist GBHSS Mithani, Naushahro Feroze, Sindh Education and Literacy Department, Government of Sindh

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the significant health issues of Pakistan. This paper reveals the long-term pattern of the TB cases reported in Pakistan over the period of  by the regression analysis. The time-based linear regression model to estimate annual TB data was done using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). The study also projects the cases of TB until the year  and determines the confidence bands to measure the uncertainty in the forecasts. The results show that there is a statistically significant increasing tendency in the occurrence of TB, and that it is high time to prevent the disease better, detect it at an early stage, increase its treatment compliance, and make informed changes in the policies. To visualize trends and uncertainty, a figure of actual and future cases with colored bands of uncertainty is also provided.

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Published

2026-01-29

How to Cite

Dr. Zohaib Ali, Dr. Syeda Hira Fatima Naqvi, Dr. Zubair Ahmed Kalhoro, Muzaffar Hussain Laghari, & Abdul Rafiu Alias Furkan. (2026). Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Tuberculosis Cases in Pakistan Using Regression Analysis with Real clinical Data (2002–2018). Dialogue Social Science Review (DSSR), 4(1), 143–151. Retrieved from https://dialoguesreview.com/index.php/2/article/view/1417

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): January 2026 Dialogue Social Science Review (DSSR)

Section

Applied Sciences